USDA's January Dairy Products report showed US cheese output at 1.19 billion pounds, down 0.5% from December and 1.2% below January 2023. Butter production rose sharply, and milk was diverted from cheese to butter.
The Daily Dairy Report called the cheese decline unexpected given growing cheese capacity.
Lower cheese output with more milk going to butter tightens cheese supply and shifts the balance of milk use, which can influence milk price direction.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.