
USDA ERS expects 2024 US dairy exports on a skim-solids basis to rise about 0.2% from 2023. Dairy import forecasts were raised and export forecasts were cut, and the all-milk price forecast was lifted to $21.25 per hundredweight.
Butter and cheddar price forecasts were raised while dry whey and nonfat dry milk forecasts were lowered.
A higher all-milk price forecast with weaker export growth points to firm domestic dairy values and limited export pull on US milk supply.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.