
Yellow grease, tallow and corn oil are gaining share from soybean oil in biomass-based diesel feedstocks, with soybean oil now at 42% of the total. The shift is driven by low carbon intensity scores under California's LCFS program, which give higher credit values per gallon.
Feedstock substitution toward lower-CI fats reduces the soybean oil share of biofuel demand, a structural headwind for soybean oil prices even as total biomass-based diesel use grows.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.