
Winter crop sowing is underway across NSW and Queensland after above-average summer rain built subsoil moisture. ABARES projects a 2% rise in the nominal value of crop production to $49 billion, led by wheat and barley, while canola area is expected to rise about 1% to 3.5 million hectares.
Wheat prices are forecast to stay low through 2024 given ample global supply.
Expanding Australian crop area and ample global wheat supply point to continued pressure on wheat and barley export prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.