
Central Iowa yield reports show corn down up to 15% from last year, with some Eastern Corn Belt areas claiming 20% losses, linked to excessive summer rain and fungus. Farmers are reluctant corn sellers while selling soybeans, and China has booked 11.3 million tons of U.S. soybeans.
Lower yield reports and reluctant farmer selling support corn basis and cash prices, while strong soybean export demand from China supports soybean prices, though market reaction has been muted.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.