USDA's May 2024 dairy market report shows US cheese exports up 20% year on year in Q1, with 8.1% of domestic cheese production exported. Domestic dairy consumption was weak in Q1, with most categories down, while cheese prices are showing strength and the DMC margin is near the $9.50/cwt Tier 1 level.
Strong cheese exports support cheese prices and milk demand, a mildly bullish signal for milk. Weak domestic consumption and food-service softness cap the upside.
After 41 past bullish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +8.1%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.