
USDA projects milk prices could reach the high $16s or low $17s by the fourth quarter of 2019, after the 2018 average fell to $14.60. US dairy exports to China fell 47 percent in October amid retaliatory tariffs, though shipments to Southeast Asia and Mexico rose.
Retaliatory tariffs cutting US dairy exports to China weigh on demand and prices, while the USDA's higher price outlook points to gradual recovery for dairy markets.
After 41 past bullish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +8.1%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.