
Mosaic cut its 2026 production guidance and capital expenditure to about $1.25B amid record sulfur prices and supply constraints. Analysts lowered price targets, with UBS moving to $19 and Barclays, CIBC and Mizuho to $22, and the company reported expected losses for Q3 2026.
Sulfur shortages from the Hormuz disruption are constraining phosphate output, which tightens DAP and phosphate supply for feed-phosphate and fertilizer buyers and supports higher phosphate prices.
After 31 past bullish logistics events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.9%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.