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Mississippi River levels at Baton Rouge have reached a 10-year low. Barges cannot safely navigate some sections, so they carry lighter loads and soy and grain are stuck in the Midwest.
Low river levels raise barge freight costs and delay grain shipments to the Gulf, widening Gulf export basis and pressuring Midwest cash prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.