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ExxonMobil reported $15.4 billion in third-quarter profit, with Gulf Coast refineries running at 100 per cent. The article says the Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have sidelined roughly 10 per cent of global refining capacity.
Lost refining capacity tightens diesel supply and supports distillate prices, which raises freight and farm operating costs for feed producers.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.