Loading…
Citi's scenario analysis puts winter 2026-27 TTF gas prices at €85/MWh if LNG facilities remain intact and about €154/MWh if they are knocked offline by conflict. The bank's weighted escalation estimate is about €103/MWh, and it sees a roughly 25% implied probability of LNG facilities being struck.
Calendar 2028 TTF contracts have risen about 60% over three months.
A possible LNG outage would tighten global gas supply and raise European energy and fertilizer costs, which feeds through to feed production costs. The analysis points to upside risk in gas-linked inputs if the Middle East conflict escalates.
makkler.comNov 1, 2026After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
