
European wholesale gas prices surged on Monday to their highest since late 2022, with the TTF benchmark hitting €97/MWh as temperatures dropped and storage stayed unusually low. The UK month-ahead contract rose 4% to 240p per therm.
Traders are pricing in winter heating demand and Middle East supply risks.
Higher European gas costs raise nitrogen fertilizer production expenses and push up energy-linked costs for feed processors, supporting prices for feed grains and meals. The rally also reflects competition for LNG that may keep global energy-driven costs elevated.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.