
Analysts expect crude oil to stay volatile with an upward bias next week as US-Iran negotiation uncertainty and Strait of Hormuz shipping risks keep geopolitical concerns elevated. The US midterm outcome and Washington's stance toward Tehran are seen as key triggers.
Brent is near $118 amid supply concerns.
Ongoing Hormuz risk keeps crude and diesel firm, lifting energy and transport costs for feed mills and supporting vegetable oil prices as an energy-linked commodity.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.