CoBank kept a positive outlook for US ethanol production in its July 11 quarterly report, citing higher margins from lower corn and natural gas prices. It also noted strong export demand and a narrowing ethanol discount to gasoline.
Sustained ethanol margins support continued grind and DDGS output, while lower corn prices reflect ample supply that weighs on feed grain values.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 62 past bearish report events, Natural Gas moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.