Rural Bank forecasts Australian winter crop production to rise 9% to 51.3 million tonnes in 2024/25. Canola exports for 2023/24 are on track at 5.8 to 6.0 million tonnes, but ending stocks are expected to be tighter than recent seasons.
A larger crop with tighter ending stocks leaves Australian prices exposed to growing-season weather and to northern hemisphere harvest pressure.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.