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Dry weather in Western and South Australia threatens canola output, which is expected to fall about 5%. Eastern states have adequate rain, which is expected to lift overall wheat output by 11% to 29.3 million tonnes.
Lower Australian canola supply supports vegetable oil and canola meal prices, while a larger wheat crop adds export pressure.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.