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SASRI reports that South Africa's February to June 2024 rainfall was below the long-term mean in several regions, with a tornado causing damage in the North Coast. The outlook says ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through winter before a likely shift toward La Niña in spring, which usually brings normal to above-normal summer rain to eastern South Africa.
A likely La Niña favours better summer rainfall for South African maize and sorghum, which could ease local supply shortfalls and reduce import needs. The effect on world prices is small.
sasri.org.zaJul 19, 2024After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
