
USDA export sales for the week ending August 1 showed strong new-crop soybean sales, driven by China and unknown buyers after a price drop. Wheat sales fell, and wheat shipments were above what USDA projects for the marketing year.
Strong new-crop soybean sales support soybean prices and meal demand, although sales can be cancelled before delivery. Weaker wheat sales are mildly bearish for wheat.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.