
Wheat futures rebounded 2-2.6% on August 27 after multi-year lows, as traders reacted to a cut in EU soft wheat yield by MARS to 5.68 t/ha and a lower German wheat forecast from DRV at 18.8 mln t. EU wheat exports in 2024/25 were 22% below last year's pace as of August 23.
A smaller EU crop and slow EU export pace support Euronext and Black Sea export prices, though Chicago and Kansas City remain near multi-year lows. Buyers should expect firmer European wheat offers, while US wheat stays pressured by ample supplies.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.