Article examines limits of current avian influenza compensation schemes as outbreaks grow larger and more frequent. The US poultry industry lost 128.8 million birds to HPAI and preventive culling between April 2015 and March 2024, with the 2023-2024 epidemic following only two years after the 2022 outbreak.
Vaccination and compensation policy are under debate.
Policy debate over vaccination and compensation affects how quickly flocks are rebuilt, which determines future poultry feed demand and egg and chicken price trajectories.
After 145 past neutral disease events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.