South Africa has confirmed more than 50 HPAI outbreaks, including 50 H7 and 10 H5 outbreaks as of 21 September 2023. Gauteng is hardest hit by H7, while Western Cape leads H5.
Reported losses total about 1.43 million chickens from H7 and 1.25 million from H5.
Heavy poultry losses reduce local chicken output and raise import needs for fertile eggs and broiler inputs, which could support demand for imported feed ingredients.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 145 past neutral disease events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.