
The rupiah strengthened to close at Rp15,187 per dollar on Tuesday after US S&P Global composite PMI for September came in at 54.4, slightly above the 54.3 expected. Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0, showing deeper contraction, and expectations for a 50 basis point Fed cut in November diminished.
Weaker US manufacturing data and reduced odds of aggressive Fed easing shape dollar direction, which feeds into the cost of dollar-priced feed ingredients for Indonesian buyers. The effect on grain prices is small.
After 23 past neutral report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.2% to +0.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.