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BNP Paribas argues the euro could rise rather than fall if a recession hits, because the dollar's role as a high-yielding currency is weakening. The bank expects the dollar to become more vulnerable as US interest rates come down.
A forecast of dollar weakness would lower dollar-priced commodity costs for euro buyers, though the effect on prices is indirect and uncertain.
reuters.comSep 17, 2024After 129 past neutral macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, DXY moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
