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Estimates put the September 1 breeding herd about 2.5% below a year ago. Hog slaughter last week was about 2.5 million head, below year-ago levels.
Supply growth is expected to be limited through winter and spring ahead of the USDA quarterly report.
A smaller breeding herd and limited supply growth support hog and pork prices into 2025, even though fall output is expected to rise.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.