Iraq, Libya declines lead 500,000 b/d drop in OPEC+ Sept output: Platts survey

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• May 19, 2020Successful OPEC+ output deal fits a pattern+8.7%
• Jan 3, 2019OPEC oil output posts biggest drop since 2017 on Saudi move+12.6%
• Feb 10, 2023Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March+0.5%
• Oct 1, 2019OPEC oil output sinks to lowest since 2011 after Saudi attacks: Reuters survey-2.5%
• Jul 31, 2019OPEC oil output hits lowest since 2011 on Saudi cut, sanctions: Reuters survey-7.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 19, 2020Successful OPEC+ output deal fits a pattern+2.9%
• Jan 3, 2019OPEC oil output posts biggest drop since 2017 on Saudi move+10.9%
• Feb 10, 2023Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March+0.6%
• Oct 1, 2019OPEC oil output sinks to lowest since 2011 after Saudi attacks: Reuters survey-3.3%
• Jul 31, 2019OPEC oil output hits lowest since 2011 on Saudi cut, sanctions: Reuters survey-7.6%