
USDA Economic Research Service analysts report that the October 1 cattle on feed inventory was 11.6 million head, nearly flat year over year. September feedlot placements were 2% lower than a year earlier, while marketings rose 2%.
Heifer retention has kept feedlot numbers steady and pushed the share of cattle on feed over 150 days higher.
A larger supply of fed steers and heifers coming to market in coming quarters adds near-term slaughter supply, which is bearish for fed cattle prices.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.