A USDA GAIN report forecasts EU milk deliveries in 2025 at 149.4 million tonnes, 0.2% below 2024, as cow numbers fall on tight margins, environmental rules and disease. Cheese output is expected to rise at the expense of butter, nonfat dry milk and whole milk powder.
Lower EU milk supply could tighten global dairy export availability and support prices, though the shift toward cheese adds to cheese supply competition.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.