
Analyst Chuck Penner said weather and international trade are the top concerns for Canadian grain, oilseed and pulse producers in 2025. A 25% US tariff would be especially harmful for canola oil, durum, oats and mustard.
He also cited the Chinese canola probe and Indian pulse tariffs as trade concerns.
Tariff risk to key Canadian export crops makes forward pricing harder and could weigh on oats and canola demand if US duties are imposed.
After 17 past bearish trade events, Oats moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (71% higher; middle half -4.2% to +5.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.