
The US postponed planned 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports for a month, though the analysis expects some tariffs to become semi-permanent. Oats are identified as the Canadian grain most affected, since Canada supplies close to a million tonnes of oats to the US each year along with a similar volume of processed oats.
Tariffs on Canadian oats would disrupt a steady flow to US cereal and granola makers, likely lifting US oat prices and pressuring Canadian oat prices.
After 17 past bearish trade events, Oats moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (71% higher; middle half -4.2% to +5.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.