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ABARES raised its national 2024-25 wheat estimate by 60,000t to 31.89Mt and its canola estimate by 115,000t to 5.587Mt in its quarterly crop report. It cut the barley estimate by 495,000t to 11.665Mt, mainly on a 470,000t drop in South Australia, where dryness and frost have hurt yields.
A larger Australian wheat crop adds exportable supply at a time of low global prices, which is bearish for wheat. The barley cut tightens feed barley supply in an exporter market.
graincentral.comGrain CentralDec 2, 2024After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
