
The French Agriculture Ministry's first estimate puts 2025 soft winter wheat sowing at 4.51 million hectares, up 8.7% but 0.8% below the five-year average. Winter barley is seen at 1.23 million hectares, winter rapeseed at 1.34 million, and winter durum at 206 thousand hectares, a three-decade low.
Corn output for 2024 was raised to 15 million tonnes.
Lower durum and below-average wheat area limit French supply recovery, while the higher corn estimate adds modest bearish pressure on EU corn. Overall the impact on feed grain prices is limited.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.