
EUR/USD fell toward 1.0370 as the dollar index rose to about 108.35. Trump threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS countries and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and said the Fed would likely keep rates on hold.
Tariff threats and a firmer dollar tend to pull up the dollar index and cut the dollar value of US agricultural exports. Stronger dollar pressure can weigh on commodity prices and make imports pricier for feed buyers abroad.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.