Brazil central bank hikes rates by 100 bps, confirms same in March

After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Sep 18, 2024Brazil central bank raises rates by 25 bp, first hike in two years-0.6%
• Oct 19, 2021Brazil central bank intervenes in FX market rattled by new spending | Financial Post+1.4%
• May 3, 2022Barclays Sees Sharp Rally in Brazil’s Real on Rate Hikes+1.9%
• Apr 17, 2017EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil real jumps on central bank intervention+0.1%
• Oct 13, 2021Brazil central bank sells $1 bln in surprise FX swap auction+0.4%

After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.

• Aug 30, 2024Brazil Real Swings on Fiscal Woes, Central Bank Interventions+3.0%
• Jun 27, 2019Brazil's central bank slashes 2019 GDP growth forecast, sees benign inflation-2.4%
• Dec 10, 2020Brazil's real jumps after central bank hints at end of easing cycle | Financial Post+2.6%
• Aug 31, 2018Argentina peso firms as central bank intervenes, IMF voices support+4.2%
• Jul 31, 2023Consulting firms: IMF disbursement will help Central Bank manage currency market - Buenos Aires Herald-1.9%