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Phosphate inventories in North America are well below average, with supply reduced by lower Chinese MAP and DAP exports, US tariffs on Moroccan phosphate, and Florida hurricanes that halted production for a month. A Nutrien representative said tight phosphate conditions are unlikely to ease in 2025.
Tight supply against weak crop prices makes phosphate expensive relative to grain, which squeezes farm margins and supports DAP and phosphate rock prices. The outlook implies continued elevated phosphate costs through the spring season.
producer.comRobert ArnasonJan 15, 2025After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
