
Analysis of the market turmoil from Trump's threatened tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were paused at the last moment, and China's added 10% tariff. It notes Canadian canola and imported grease were quickly reassessed as less viable US biofuel feedstocks under RFS2, increasing reliance on domestic feedstocks.
Reduced access for Canadian canola and imported grease to US biofuel demand shifts feedstock flows toward domestic soybean oil, supporting US soy oil and weakening canola demand.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.