ADM's weekly futures summary for February 10 said soybeans started the week lower on improving South American weather and new US tariff threats. Trump announced steel and aluminum tariffs, raising fears of retaliation against US agricultural exports, while corn and wheat also reacted to the tariff news.
Rising retaliation fears weigh on US feed grain and oilseed export demand, while improved South American crop prospects add supply pressure.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.