Loading…
NOAA's February 2025 ENSO update says La Niña is present but weak, with the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8 °C in January. Forecasters put a 66% chance on a shift to neutral in March–May.
A weak, short La Niña that fades to neutral reduces the risk of a prolonged drought in key exporting regions. That lowers the weather premium that would otherwise support grain prices.
climate.govEmily BeckerMar 1, 2025After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
