
The South African rand hit its highest level in nearly three months against the dollar on March 6. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico imports and doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%.
Dollar weakness tied to tariff fears supports the rand and dollar-priced commodities, while the wider trade war adds demand risk for US farm exports.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.