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Foreign investors cut their bets against the Brazilian real by $35.4 billion since December, driving the dollar down about 8% against the real this year. Several banks raised their year-end real forecasts as a result.
Unwinding of speculative positions has strengthened the real, which raises Brazilian export costs in dollar terms and can support prices for Brazilian soybeans and meal. The move is a currency-flow driver rather than a supply event.
valorinternational.globo.comArthur Cagliari, Victor RezendeMar 21, 2025After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
