
The Mexican peso fell for a fourth straight day on March 31 as investors braced for US reciprocal tariffs due April 2. Banxico recently cut rates by 50 bps to 9% and JP Morgan expects Mexico to enter recession.
A weaker peso and recession risk in Mexico could cut its demand for US feed grains and meat, while tariff uncertainty weighs on risk appetite and dollar-denominated commodity trade.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.