
A University of Missouri economist said tariff talk has already disrupted ethanol exports, as Canada, the largest buyer of US ethanol, stopped buying. Ethanol stocks spiked to near-record highs as a result.
He expects ethanol grind to taper off this spring.
Lower ethanol exports and rising stocks weaken ethanol margins and reduce corn demand from ethanol plants. That is bearish for corn and DDGS.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.