Traders expect Saudi Arabia to push OPEC+ to agree another large supply increase at its May 5 meeting, with about 60% of surveyed traders predicting a June hike above the scheduled amount. Earlier in April, OPEC+ revived 411,000 barrels a day for May, three times the planned volume.
Brent briefly fell below $60 before trading near $63.
Expected extra supply from OPEC+ would add to bearish pressure on crude, which feeds into diesel costs and vegetable oil prices. The political angle, including Riyadh's ties with Washington, adds uncertainty.
After 210 past bearish policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, WTI moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.