◂ Event Timeline

May 28, 2025MACROBrazil

Surprise in Brazil’s inflation preview boosts local assets

Brazil's IPCA-15 inflation preview came in below expectations, and global rate markets fell sharply. Brazilian future rate premiums dropped, the Ibovespa rose to a near-record, and the real strengthened to R$5.64 per dollar.

WHY IT MATTERS

Lower expected Selic hikes and a firmer real ease import costs for Brazilian feed buyers. The move is a currency and rates story with little direct effect on feed commodity prices.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▼

SOURCE
valorinternational.globo.comGabriel Roca, Bruna Furlani, Maria Fernanda Salinet, Arthur CagliariMay 28, 2025

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.9%5d -0.1%20d -1.6%

After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

Oct 13, 2021Brazil central bank sells $1 bln in surprise FX swap auction+0.4%
Oct 31, 2022Brazilian assets rally in volatile session after Lula elected president-5.8%
Jun 29, 2022Fed rate hike bets hit Latam assets; Brazil's real jumps | Financial Post+3.9%
Dec 11, 2025Latin American assets rally on Fed cut, Brazil's cenbank maintains pause | Reuters+0.9%
Nov 8, 2021Brazil's real dips on inflation woes, Chile's peso supported by copper | Financial Post-1.4%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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