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The May 12 USDA WASDE projected 2025-26 US soybean ending stocks at 295 million bushels, well below the 362 million expected by the trade. The estimate assumes a record 52.5 bushel-per-acre yield, and DTN warns that a 51 bushel yield would push carryover to levels not seen since 2013.
Tight projected carryout from a bullish surprise supports soybean prices, and any yield shortfall in drought-affected Corn Belt areas would tighten supplies further. Feed costs for soymeal users could rise accordingly.
dtnpf.comMitch MillerMay 15, 2025After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
