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USDA's Crop Progress report rated 47% of the oat crop in leading states good-to-excellent for the week ending 11 May, down from 63% a year earlier. Ratings range widely by state, with Pennsylvania at 88% and Wisconsin at 87%.
Poor early oat conditions in several states reduce expected output and support oat prices, although the spread among states limits the overall effect.
After 68 past bullish weather events, OATS moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.