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A farmdoc daily analysis reviews the House Agriculture Committee's reconciliation text released May 12, 2025, covering commodity program and farm policy provisions. The authors say further analysis will follow once CBO estimates are available.
Changes to farm safety-net programs affect producer planting incentives and acreage decisions over time, but the impact on near-term feed prices is limited.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoMay 15, 2025After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
