USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced an immediate suspension of live cattle, horse and bison imports through southern border ports. The action responds to New World screwworm spreading in Mexico to Oaxaca and Veracruz, about 700 miles from the US border, and will be reviewed monthly.
Cutting off live cattle imports removes a seasonal source of feeder supply, which tightens US cattle supplies and supports cattle prices.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.