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Indian farm goods exports rose over 8% to $4.16 billion in April-May 2025, led by rice, buffalo meat and fruit. Rice exports rose 4.7% to $2.04 billion, and exporters worry the Israel-Iran conflict could disrupt basmati shipments to Iran.
Strong Indian rice export flows add supply to global markets, a bearish factor for rice prices, while Middle East disruption is a modest offsetting risk.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.