An Australian ABARES-style commodities outlook projects global crop production in 2024-25 above 2023-24 levels. It expects near-average June-August rainfall to boost 2025-26 output in major grain regions, while dry soils in South Australia, western Victoria and parts of NSW and WA weigh on winter crop sowing.
Expected above-average global output and dry patches in Australian winter crops give mixed signals, leaving wheat and barley supply prospects broadly balanced with limited price impact.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.