
The French Ministry of Agriculture estimates 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 million tonnes, 27% above the poor 2024 crop. The ministry puts the average yield at 7.26 t/ha on 4.49 million hectares.
It also estimates barley output at 11.8 million tonnes, up 19.1% year on year, and rapeseed at 4.2 million tonnes.
A larger French wheat and barley crop increases EU feed grain supplies and should weigh on feed wheat and barley prices, while the figure is in line with analyst expectations, so the price reaction is likely moderate.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.